Macro Trends

Gate Research Daily Report: On February 11, the crypto market remained under downward pressure, with major assets trading in a weak consolidation range as BTC and ETH hovered at elevated levels without clear directional momentum. On the thematic front, capital continued to rotate into high-narrative trades: POWER surged on strong volume driven by the Web3 incentive-layer narrative and ecosystem partnership developments; PIPPIN rebounded sharply on the back of AI creator IP momentum and sentiment recovery; while SONIC strengthened amid the SVM expansion narrative and intensified community exposure. Structurally, the tokenized Treasury market surpassed $10 billion in size, reinforcing RWA’s role as a foundational asset within on-chain finance, while Gate TradFi’s cumulative trading volume exceeded $33 billion.

Gate Research Weekly Report: After a sharp sell-off, the market has entered a consolidation phase, with BTC and ETH still capped by key moving averages. Capital is rotating back into high-beta sectors such as AI, signaling a modest recovery in risk appetite. Ethereum’s staking ratio has surpassed 30%, reaching a new all-time high and pointing to ongoing supply contraction and a rebalancing of liquidity structures. Zerohash’s integration with Monad and USDC is advancing the deployment of stablecoin payment infrastructure at the L1 level. Tether’s U.S. Treasury holdings continue to expand, accelerating the integration of stablecoins into the short-term interest rate system. Overall crypto market capitalization continues to decline, indicating that the market remains in a near-term de-risking phase. Meanwhile, Anchorage has completed a strategic financing round of approximately $100 million, with participation from Tether.

The article combines price trends with inventory data to argue that the current silver market is not merely driven by sentiment, but reflects a structural crisis of "highly leveraged paper silver versus extreme physical shortages."

Gate Research Daily Report: On February 13, BTC traded with a weak consolidation bias, briefly dipping to USD 65,230 before stabilizing and hovering in the USD 65,400–65,600 range; ETH failed to hold above USD 1,980 and pulled back, currently consolidating weakly between USD 1,910–1,930; GT retreated after a prior rebound, oscillating around USD 6.90; BTR surged +63.33% over 24 hours, becoming the market standout amid renewed Bitcoin ecosystem momentum. On the macro front, Standard Chartered lowered its long-term price targets for BTC and ETH, Vitalik emphasized that crypto applications should refocus on product fundamentals, and the acquisition of Northern Data’s mining business by entities linked to Tether executives drew market attention.

In January, BTC and ETH trading volumes generally fluctuated at elevated levels. Market sentiment shifted from a recovery phase toward caution, with limited trend persistence. Stablecoin market capitalization across major blockchains remained highly concentrated, with Ethereum accounting for more than half of the total. Gold and silver prices reached record highs, while the market cap of tokenized commodities surpassed $5 billion. Prediction markets recorded a new monthly high of $12 billion in trading volume, with both activity and fees expanding in tandem. The Web3 industry completed 53 funding rounds in January, with capital primarily flowing into blockchain services and the CeFi sector. Smart contract vulnerabilities continued to be the leading source of Web3 security risks.

Web3 and Web4 represent a logical progression in the evolution of the internet, transitioning from a "transformation of production relations" to a "leap in productivity." Web3, anchored by blockchain and cryptography, focuses on solving issues of "Ownership" and decentralized trust, returning power from centralized platforms to individuals. In contrast, Web4 is defined as the "Symbiotic Web," with its core revolving around "Agentic Power."

Gate Research Weekly Report: BTC has reclaimed $65,000 but remains capped by resistance at $66,000–$68,500, with prices likely to range between $60,000 and $70,000 in the near term. ETH has moved back above $2,000 but continues to trade within a descending channel, facing resistance at $2,050–$2,150. Altcoin sentiment has improved, though the broader market remains in “extreme fear.” CRYPTOBURG surged on exchange listing and airdrop expectations, while MBX and POWER gained on trading momentum and speculative flows. Nvidia’s Q4 revenue rose 73% year-over-year, reinforcing the AI narrative; Bitcoin funding rates turned negative, and short liquidations intensified positioning dynamics; Jane Street faces insider trading allegations, sparking regulatory debate. This week’s focus includes ZachXBT’s investigative report, Ethereum’s seven-fork Strawmap roadmap, and Circle’s better-than-expected earnings. Next week, watch for unlock pressure from SUI, JUP, and GRASS.

Indiana House Bill 1042 has cleared both chambers and now awaits the governor’s approval. The legislation permits public retirement funds to invest in crypto assets and protects individual access to digital assets, positioning it as a key development in state-level Bitcoin rights legislation across the United States.

Gate Research Daily Report: On March 2, the crypto market continued to trade in a high-volatility consolidation pattern, with BTC repeatedly fluctuating within the $66,000–$67,000 range and ETH rebounding but still in the process of trend confirmation, as overall risk appetite kept contracting. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened macro uncertainty, driving gains in oil and gold, while the Fear & Greed Index fell to 10. Structurally, clear divergence emerged among small-cap and thematic assets: SYND surged on exchange incentives and ecosystem partnership catalysts, ARC strengthened amid renewed AI narrative rotation, and CFG attracted buying interest following its listing on a Korean exchange. On the industry front, X lifted its ban on paid crypto promotions while tightening disclosure requirements, SpaceX advanced its IPO plans and disclosed holdings of 8,285 BTC, and Vitalik noted that AI is significantly accelerating Ethereum’s development process, underscoring that innovation and

Gate Research: The depreciation of the USD is the result of long-term shifts in real purchasing power, fiscal dynamics, and real interest rates. Regulatory constraints within the traditional banking system have created offshore demand for dollars, which stablecoins are increasingly absorbing. The quality of collateral, transparency, and issuer credibility are becoming the key determinants of stablecoins’ price stability, liquidity priority, and long-term capital preference. Looking ahead to 2026, stablecoins are more likely to function as a “reservoir” and distribution layer for dollars, with their reserve-driven demand for short-term treasuries in turn beginning to influence the dollar’s own pricing structure.

Following the joint U.S.–Israel airstrikes on Iran, gold and crude oil gapped higher at Monday’s open, while global equities opened lower and Bitcoin volatility intensified. Prediction markets suggest that the probability of a full-scale war remains relatively low, though the risk of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz is not negligible. If tensions ease on a temporary basis, commodity prices could see a meaningful pullback. Conversely, further escalation would raise the risk of another sharp surge in gold and oil prices. Bitcoin may face near-term pressure, with its medium-term trajectory likely dependent on global liquidity conditions. Gate has now launched trading segments covering metals, equities, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities. Through Gate TradFi, investors can access 24/7 trading to respond swiftly to market developments and capture emerging opportunities.

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